Atlético Madrid faces Real Madrid in a critical Champions League last-16 2nd leg on Wednesday, March 12, 2025! Can Atlético overcome their first-leg deficit with their strong home advantage? Here’s a preview, including predicted lineups and key stats.
The Stakes at the Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid hosts Real Madrid, aiming to overturn a narrow 2-1 first-leg loss. The game promises high drama at the Metropolitano, with Atlético looking to leverage their impressive home form.
Predicted Lineups
Atlético Madrid (4-4-2):
Oblak (GK) – Llorente, Giménez, Le Normand, Galán – Barrios, Gallagher, Simeone, Lino – Griezmann, Álvarez.
Manager: Diego Simeone
Real Madrid (4-4-2)
Courtois (GK) – Valverde, Asencio, Rüdiger, Mendy – Rodrygo, Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Bellingham – Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior.
Manager: Carlo Ancelotti
Key Absences
- Real Madrid: Antonio Rüdiger (illness, doubtful). Rodrygo, Vinícius, and Bellingham face late fitness tests.
- Atlético: César Azpilicueta (out), Koke (doubtful).
Key Insights and Stats
Let’s dive into the crucial stats and insights that could determine the outcome of this match:
- Supercomputer Prediction: According to Opta’s supercomputer, Atlético Madrid has a slight edge with a 38.5% chance of winning, compared to Real Madrid’s 35.2%. A draw is predicted 26.3% of the time.
- Atlético’s Home Fortress: Atlético boasts an impressive home record in Champions League knockout stages, remaining unbeaten since March 1997. That’s 18 games without a loss (11 wins, 7 draws).
- Real Madrid’s Dominance: Real Madrid has historically been tough to beat in Champions League ties after winning the first leg, progressing 21 out of 22 times. Under Carlo Ancelotti, they’re a perfect 9 for 9 in such scenarios.
- Ancelotti’s Milestone: This game marks Carlo Ancelotti’s 75th Champions League match in charge of Real Madrid, a club record.
- Goal-Scoring Prowess: Real Madrid is averaging 2.55 goals per game in the Champions League this season, their highest since the 2016-17 season.
- Rodrygo’s Impact: Rodrygo’s first-leg goal was his 25th in the Champions League for Real Madrid, making him the fourth-youngest player to reach this milestone for a single club.
First-Leg Recap: Real Madrid 2-1 Atlético
- Stats: Real dominated with 13 shots (7 on target) vs. Atlético’s 6 (2 on target). Possession: 51%-49%.
- Heroes: Rodrygo (25th UCL goal for Madrid) and Julián Álvarez (scored for Atléti) shone.
What to Watch
- Home vs. History: Atlético are unbeaten in 5 home cup games vs. Madrid (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Ancelotti’s Milestone: This marks his 75th UCL game managing Real Madrid, a club record.
- Comeback Kings?: Atlético overturned 3 of 6 UCL ties after losing the first leg. But Real Madrid rarely falter.
Injury Concerns and Team News
- Real Madrid: Rodrygo is dealing with a hand injury, while Vinícius Júnior has a toe issue, and Jude Bellingham took a knock to his thigh. Antonio Rüdiger is also a doubt due to illness. However, reports suggest all three attackers should be available.
- Atlético Madrid: Julián Alvarez has been in great form, contributing to a goal in each of his last five Champions League appearances. César Azpilicueta is likely still out, and Koke remains a doubt.
Head-to-Head Record
- Atlético has only lost once in their last seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions (3 wins, 3 draws).
- In cup competitions, Atlético is unbeaten in their last five home fixtures against Real Madrid (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Real Madrid had a dominant run of eight consecutive away victories against Atlético between 2008 and 2014. However, since then, they’ve only managed three wins in 17 away games in this derby.
Prediction
While Real Madrid won the first leg, Atlético’s strong home record makes them slight favorites in this match. The game is expected to be tightly contested. Real Madrid’s experience and Champions League pedigree give them a slight edge in the tie overall.
Opta Supercomputer Odds:
- Atlético Madrid Win: 38.5%
- Real Madrid Win: 35.2%
- Draw: 26.3%
- Real Madrid to Qualify: 72.5%
- Atlético Madrid to Qualify: 27.5%
